Dependence between foreign trade performance and exchange rate volatility: Panel ARDL approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
Abstract The purpose of this study is to analyse the influence exchange rate shocks on foreign trade (exports and imports) fifteen economies within ECOWAS sub-region. To accomplish goal paper, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) procedure was employed investigate impact volatility in market has both long- short-term with data between 1980 2020. compute volatility, it relied GARCH (1, 1) model which predicted conditional variances as proxy for volatility. Our empirical results are distinguished into export import model, reveal that performance negatively short-run, though statistically insignificant. however becomes positive long run, significant two models. These signpost while volatilities appear deteriorate international these short-term, substantially significantly causes its improvement long-term. Hence, our validate J curve effect case economies. Policy implication from findings suggests develop a robust ultimate economic growth, recommended policymakers maintain stability their currency markets by way adopting some intervention measures.
منابع مشابه
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Croatian review of economic, business and social statistics
سال: 2023
ISSN: ['1849-8531', '2459-5616']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/crebss-2023-0001